INTRODUCTION
For decades,
scholars and practitioners have been frustrated by the very limited capacity of
either psychological or marketing models to predict individual choices on particular occasions. This paper discusses a theory which explains
the degree to which the extant models omit important influences that produce
varied individual choice behaviour. The
focus of this paper is on the sequences of product purchases. Discretionary actions and activities are also
covered.
THE THEORETICAL AND APPLIED RELEVANCE OF
VARIED BEHAVIOUR
The assumption that consumers make
rational, utility-maximizing choices has played an important role in economic
thought. As long as preferences remain
unchanged, the consumer is expected to choose the most preferred of the
available products. Thoughts about
consumers' behaviour towards substitutes hold a similar position. If a consumer's preference for the most
preferred alternative product declines or the product is currently
unavailable, the consumer is expected to
choose a close substitute. From the firm's strategic point of view, this means that the marketer of a secondary
brand should make its brand similar to the most popular brand.
Careful
consideration of the preceding description of consumer choice behaviour and the
firm's selection of a strategy immediately leads one to question the general
applicability of these assumption / thought. Although consumers often display
stable preferences, sound choice behaviour seldom remains constant. Instead, consumers frequently change their
choices of products or brands.
Furthermore, the choices made on different occasions often involve two
very different products or brands. In
summary, changing, varied behaviour is the rule. Managers often avoid the use of simple
"me-too" brands, recognizing that consumers are seeking more than
simple substitutes. This tendency is
seen directly in a number of product categories in which successful products
are seldom replaced with highly similar products. Instead, a degree of product newness is
viewed as being essential to maintain consumer interest.
The theory of
consumer choice behaviour that is presented in this paper is designed to
explain the typical degree of variability that consumers exhibit in a series of
related choices. Should this theory more
accurately describe individual choices, than the meaning and predictive power
of many models must be questioned. For
example, the results from all preference-based mapping methods, such as MDPREF
(Carroll, 1972) and the Schonemann-Wang (1972) models, should be interpreted
with great care. In these cases, the
analyst must resist jumping to the conclusion that the choice objects that
appear close to each other have similar characteristics. All simple attribute-based choice models,
such as the widely used conjoint method, must also be interpreted carefully. Here one must resist the
assumption that the set of most preferred items will necessarily have similar
characteristics. Typically, the set of
most preferred or most frequently chosen products will contain items that are
very different. These products do not necessarily satisfy the notion that the
objects' attributes will surpass the total utility produced. For example, sometimes a consumer may want a
cold beverage and at other times the same consumer may want a hot
beverage. Furthermore, the more of one
kind of beverage that an individual consumes, the less likely the consumer will
make the same choice on the next occasion.
Unlike the reasons that produce constant-purchase and / or constant-use
behaviour, different motives produce changes in purchase and use. To predict the choice made on the next
occasion, one needs to account for the consumer's prior choice behaviour.
A THEORY OF VARIED CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR
Psychologists have long recognized that
individual judgements and choices contain an important random element that
leads to inconsistent behaviour.
Thurstone's Law of Comparative and Categorical Judgement modelled individual
judgements and choices. The random
component present in most contexts of interest to marketing professionals
include larger variables that are too costly to measure or for which practical
measurement methods have not been developed.
Consider the purchase of breakfast cereal. At the point of purchase, a favourite brand
may be out of stock, the customer may be distracted, the shopper's child may
make the selection, or a clerk restocking part of the assortment may contain
choice. Although this list contains only
a few of the conditions which can affect consumer choice, it demonstrates the
difficulty of observing and recording all of the relevant influences. All unmeasurable influences are labelled
inexplicable causes of varied behaviour.
There are two
important types of explicable causes of varied behaviour. The first type of the
explicable cause of varied behaviour has to do with an individual's motives
that indirectly or incidentally produce patterns of varied behaviour, while the
second one has to do with an individual's direct motives where varied behaviour
is valued. Purchasing for multiple uses
in an example of the first type of motive.
An example of the first type of motive is the purchasing of one kind of
paint for prime raw wood and another kind of paint to obtain a durable finish
coat. An example of the second type of
motive is the purchasing of a new piece of clothing to keep up with the current
trend or to relieve the boredom produced by repeatedly wearing an older style. These two types of motive for varied behaviour
are explored in more detail in the following subsecctions.
INDIRECT VARIED BEHAVIOUR
There are two major kinds of motives that
indirectly produce varied behaviour.
These have to do with multiple needs and changing conditions. Multiple needs may arise due to multiple
users, multiple uses by the individual, and multiple contexts in which the
product class is used. Although only one
member in a household may need low-calorie products, a record of the beverage
purchases made by the principal household purchasing agent will typically show
occasional change from high- to low- calorie products and / or the simultaneous
purchase of both high- and low-calorie beverages. In a similar manner, when an individual uses
a food product such as rice in separate dishes and as an ingredient in other
dishes, from time to time purchases may change from instant rice to regular
rice or to wild rice so that the most suitable product will be available to
use. Closely related is the use of the
product in multiple contexts. Here, an individual may buy a common table wine
to serve at regular evening meals but buy a premium wine to serve to guests at
a dinner party.
Changing conditions include new choice
sets, changing tastes, and new constraints.
Over time, more classes of choice objects are presented to the consumer
with new and / or changed alternatives. The products in a product class, the
candidates available to voters, and the services offered by financial
institutions all illustrate the a choice set.
A previously preferred product may no longer be available, a candidate's
declining health may encourage voters to switch loyalties, and a new financial
service may offer important advantage to a large number of individuals who use
the older services. Changes in individual
choice behaviour can also be due to changes in individual tastes or
preferences. As individuals mature,
their needs change, and as individuals are exposed to persuasive messages about
products, candidates, or services, their preferences may change. Finally, an
individual may change his or her choices due to new constraints such as a new
legislation or changes in their disposable personal income.
DIRECT VARIED BEHAVIOUR
Direct varied behaviour is primarily
motivated by the desire for variety. Two
kinds of motives must be recognized. The
first category deals with the interpersonal variety or change that takes place
to the individual's own possessions and experiences. The second category deals
with the interpersonal variety or change that occurs to possessions and
experiences of others.
Interpersonal variety can result when an
individual becomes bored with repeated exposures to similar possessions or
activities. For example, a record
collection that contains the works of one or a few artists may be diversified
for the sake of variety or contrast. An
individual may switch away from a favourite brand to gain information about new
products or to help reconfirm their regular purchase pattern. Notice that the
decisions motivated in this way have little or no social content, but that the
varied behaviour provides a direct personal reward.
Satiation may induce changes in choice
behaviour. It is assumed that preferences and choices are based on the
attributes delivered by choice objects.
An individual usually wants to maintain some most-preferred level of
each attribute, such as the levels of calories and protein provided by food and
drink. A small excess or deficiency will
not greatly reduce utility but large excesses or shortages may be very
undesirable. These kinds of relationships are shown graphically in appendix 1.
In appendix 1,
attribute A is less important than attribute B.
Also, the utility derived from attribute A is less sensitive to
departures from the ideal level than is the case for attribute B.
Rarely will a
given choice object deliver just the mix of attribute needed to keep the
relevant attributes near their ideal levels.
For this reason, individuals must change their choice from time to time
to maintain desirable levels of each attribute. With this in mind, consider an
individual who wants to maintain his or her physical fitness and who acquires
products and services with attributes that contribute their desire to maintain
their physical fitness. When past choices lead to an excessive focus on
fitness, this individual will tend to choose products and activities that
contribute to other desired attributes or goals, such as intellectual
stimulation and artistic interests. As
satiation or deprivation grows, the individual is progressively more strongly
motivated to choose different alternatives so that an ideal balance of each
attribute can be attained.
Seeking
interpersonal variety has a strong social content. Here, the individual is
faced with maintaining a balance between two conflicting motives. First, the
need for affiliation encourage one to change his or her choices to keep in
phase with the changing behaviour of valued peers and / or differentiate them
self from the behaviour of undesirable others. Second, the need for distinction
and individuality motivates changes in behaviour that will create desirable
differences between the individual and his or her valued peers. These separate forms of interpersonal varied
behaviour can only be understood as they relate to the possessions and actions
that have social meaning to the individual.
Interpersonal form of varied behaviour do not share this social
dimension but both the interpersonal motives are higher-older processes such that
the predictions of an individual's choice on the next occasion cannot be fully
understood without knowledge of the possessions or past actions of one or more
individuals.
THE UNIFIED THEORY
The elements motivating varied behaviour,
can be summarized in the simple diagram of Appendix 2. The portion of the theory dealing with
explicable direct causes of varied behaviour involves consideration of the
post-decision level of the attributes provided by alternative choice objects in
relation to the desired levels of these attributes. The potential utility provided by any choice
can be expressed as the sum of the post-choice improvements in the level of
each attribute. This improvement is
measured by the closeness of the post-choice levels of the N object's
attributes to the ideal levels of these attribute and by similar measures
covering information, affiliation, and distinction. See appendix 3. Note that the weights indicate the importance
of each attribute 'i'.
The model appears
to be computationally feasible and is likely to produce improved predictions of
individual choice, especially in those cases where interpersonal and / or
interpersonal motives are important.
SOME KEY MEASUREMENT ISSUES
Variety has been treated as a primitive
term. There are two measures of -
structural variety and temporal variety.
Structural variety is defined on an
unordered set of objects at a point in time. The more distinct the
characteristics possessed by each object, the greater the potential variety
possessed by the set. For example, a set of marbles that vary in size, weight,
material, colour, and surface treatment can differ along just these five
dimensions. By way of contrast,
residential structures or automobiles can vary along dozens of important characteristics
or dimensions. These facts lead to a
geometric representation of variety in which objects can be plotted or located
along each dimension, just as one might locate cities by their longitude and
latitude on a common map. The larger the average distance between objects
located in a perceptual map spanned by the attributes of the objects, the
greater the objects' structural variety.
Temporal variety is concerned with the
variety of a temporally ordered set such as the recreational activities that an
individual engages in during a week or the amount of books that an individual
reads over a period of time. Here, it is
natural to consider the structural variety (the degree of difference or
similarity among objects) but the variety conveyed by the sequence presents
additional aspects that must be considered.
How often each object or element appears in the sequence and the
differences between contiguous objects or elements in the sequence must be
considered.
The two types of variety is concerned with
a set of objects, either at a point in time or over a given time interval. The two measures of variety are either object
or element specific, but they become individual specific as well when the owner
of a collection of objects is identified.
In general, we expect the distribution of individuals' variety measures
to vary across the types of objects or elements being observed.
IMPLICATION OF VARIED CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR
Consumer behaviour varies from one
individual to another individual. In
conclusion, the following is a list of varied consumer behaviour
implications :
1. In most settings and for a major portion of
all buyers, strong brand loyalty is unattainable. Unproductive efforts to increase market
shares and / or brand loyalty should be avoided.
2. When large numbers of buyers want a different
brand on successive purchase occasions, a dominant market share cannot be
attained by a single brand. Instead,
carefully positioned multiple-brand or multiple-product offerings are required.
3. Buyers' needs for information and stimulation
determine the rate and type of new product introductions that should be made in
product classes dominated by direct, interpersonal variety motives.
4. Buyers' needs for socially relevant
independence and identification determines the types of new products and the
rate with which they should be introduced in product classes dominated by
interpersonal motives. Not only must the
behaviour of buyers be monitored but also the behaviour of relevant social influences
must also be understood.
5. The motives for varied behaviour should be
recognized and exploited in marketing communications. For example, a small-market-share brand can
emphasize the change-of-pace or boredom-chasing benefits of occasionally
switching to that brand.
6. Since variety segments can be effectively
developed, product positioning efforts and marketing communications should
exploit the homogeneity of each segment and the between-segment differences.
7. The scope and nature of the uncontrollable
and inexplicable influences must be recognized by decision-makers to they can
concentrate their efforts on those factors which are subject to managerial
control.
APPENDIX 1
APPENDIX
2
Causes of Varied
Consumer Behaviour
Inexpliccable - Stochactis
elements
or
omitted variables
Multiple
Users
Multiple
Uses
Varied Multiple
Contexts
Consumer Indirect
Behaviour
Changing
Choice Sets
Changing
Tastes
Changing
Constraints
Explicable
Stimulation
Information
Direct Satiation
Affiliation
Distinction
APPENDIX
3
N
Object Ulitility = w (reduction in the distance from the desired
level of
i = 1 attribute i to its expected post-choice
level)
+
N+1 (reduction in the distance from
the desired level of
information to its expected post-decision
level)
+
N+2 (reduction in the distance from
the desired level of
affiliation to its expected post-decision
level)
+
N+3 (reduction in the distance from
the desired level of
distinction to its expected post-decision
level)
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